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0.25CIP Points

气候变暖与环境污染下的生活

Domini Stuart
21 Aug 2023 - Reading time 5 minutes
Claims General Insurance Insurance Broking Life and Retirement Income Reinsurance Risk Management

从疫苗接种到工业化,再到牛奶巴氏杀菌,历史上人类干预的例子数不胜数,而这些干预极大地增加或减少了人类的寿命。然而,根据法国再保险公司SCOR的新兴风险大使艾琳·默克(Irene Merk)博士所说,气变规模之大,可能对我们所有人的预期寿命都会产生更大的影响。

默克博士说:“最重要的是,气变发生的速度,超过生态系统的适应能力,导致了系统出现颠覆,波动性更高。这表示,对未来发病率和死亡率的预测变得越来越具有挑战性,我们更有可能需要针对冲击事件和趋势做出保护和抵御。因此,考虑长期商业利益的公司,如寿险公司,就必须努力了解气变及其对业务造成的直接影响和间接影响。”

复杂多变

气变对健康和寿命的影响复杂而多样,部分原因是这种影响极为多变。

瑞士再保险公司人寿研究和战略预测部负责人普里亚·德瓦拉卡纳特(Priya Dwarakanath)说:“我们预计区域差异会很显著。如果高收入阶层获得缓解措施和医疗保健服务的机会更多,那么我们就会看到,在最终死亡率方面,社会经济差异带来的后果可能会变得更加明显。对于临床意义上的弱势群体,包括合并症患者、老年人、残疾人、孕妇、儿童等,威胁也可能会更大。”

瑞士再保险公司还发现,虽然气变对发病率的影响是渐进、缓慢的,但可能在几十年内都会感受到其影响。

友邦(AIA)澳大利亚首席执行官兼董事总经理达米安·穆(Damien Mu)认为,他还没有看到气变和理赔之间有直接的联系,然而他毫不怀疑相关健康影响会随着时间推移而进一步加重。

他说:“我们特别关注对慢性病的影响,因为这些是保险理赔的主要原因。例如,在澳大利亚,热浪、林火、洪水、干旱等,都会直接影响呼吸道病和心脏病等慢性疾病。这些因素能改变食物供应并产生间接影响,而且对心理健康也会产生重大影响。”

识别业务风险

寿险公司都应该清楚地了解气变会对业务产生的影响。默克说:“这将取决于各保险公司各自的情况,评估只能在具体案例的基础上进行。”

她概述了需要考虑的五个主要方面:

  1. 保险产品类型:例如,病媒类传染病,如疟疾和登革热,预计将会更频繁地在更广泛的地理范围内出现。然而,由于这些疾病通常属非致命性疾病,这种危险只与残疾保险或医疗保险相关。 
  2. 世界各地区:根据世行的数据,世界上空气污染最严重的10个城市中,南亚占9个。极端的洪涝、干旱、飓风等灾害,分布范围不均,食物和用水的短缺亦是如此。 
  3. 保险客户年龄:气变的受害者,大部分将是非常年轻和非常年老的人群。
  4. 客户的健康状况和社会经济地位:能够买得起寿险的人,社会经济地位和健康状况都优于一般人,其中部分是通过医疗核保的选择来实现。然而,情况也有例外。财富虽然可以防止人们“挨饿”,但要防止空气质量恶化却很难。
  5. 间接影响:这些影响都难以衡量、难以检测。例如,心理健康问题与人口中的各个部分都非常相关,因为这与免疫系统有关,也与事故和自杀有关。 

塑造未来

在气变对人类健康的影响方面,友邦保险有着更加深入的了解,这对其未来规划、产品设计和定价而言都是重要因素之一。 

“我们还考虑到一个事实,即每个国家、每个企业、每个个人都需要尽其所能,尽量减少碳足迹,”达米安说,“通过选择更好的交通方式、食品、能源,减少温室气体的排放,也能改善健康结果。例如,选择步行或骑自行车而非开车,对身心健康、对环境都有好处。我们专注于人人都能做到小事——广义上讲,就是照顾自己的健康福祉;具体而言,就是减少自己对环境的影响。”

德瓦拉卡纳特鼓励保险公司寻找方法,通过利用替代方法,比如微型保险、与政府机构合作的参数化风险转移解决方案、数字技术等,扩大更多弱势消费者的使用量和覆盖范围。

“这些解决方案可以帮助缩小保险差距,为更多人提供所需的保险,保护其自身免受气变带来的负面影响。”她说。 

“保险公司还可以与公共部门和私营部门的利益相关者合作,收集更多的数据,绘制和模拟不断变化的气候、死亡率和发病率等趋势。这样就有助于为未来健康结果作出更好的决策,并让供应商开发出更符合消费者需求的人寿险产品和健康险产品。”

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