Gallagher Re Q3 Natural Catastrophe and Climate Report

Gallagher Re’s Q3 2025 Natural Catastrophe and Climate Report presents a comprehensive view of global catastrophe activity across the first three quarters of the year, highlighting a period of relative calm in contrast to the volatility seen in H1.

With economic losses totalling USD214 billion, well below the 10-year average, and insured losses at USD105 billion, the report underscores a quieter-than-expected tropical cyclone season and manageable flood and storm events globally.

However, the subdued Q3 figures follow a highly active H1 in the US, where severe convective storms and wildfires drove insured losses to record levels.

The report revisits these earlier events with updated loss estimates and contextualizes their impact within broader market dynamics.

Notably, 13 of the 14 billion-dollar insured events in H1 occurred in the US, reinforcing the geographic concentration of risk and the need for refined regional modelling.

A key development in Q3 is the transition from ENSO-neutral to La Niña conditions, which could materially influence North American winter weather and late-season cyclone activity.

Gallagher Re’s climate team explores the implications of this shift, drawing on historical analogues and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecasts to assess potential impacts on loss frequency and severity.

The report also addresses record-breaking global heat, with growing relevance for health infrastructure and protection gap discussions.

Regional analyses cover monsoon flooding in Asia, European wildfire activity, and the U.S. storm season, offering granular insights for portfolio managers and underwriters.

For insurers and reinsurers, the Q3 update provides not only a snapshot of current loss development but also a forward-looking lens on climate volatility, peril clustering, and seasonal risk transitions.

Download the Report