The future of excess mortality after Covid-19

Four years on from the outbreak of the pandemic in 2020, many countries worldwide still report elevated deaths in their populations.

This impact appears generally independent of healthcare systems and population health.

This trend is evident even after accounting for shifting population sizes, and the range of reporting mechanisms and death classifications that make inter-country comparisons complex.

There is also likely a degree of excess mortality under-reporting.

Quantifying excess mortality has been an acute challenge since 2020 due to the exceptional mortality rates of the pandemic.

Excess mortality refers to the number of deaths over and above an assumed “expected” number of deaths.

The different methods of estimating expected mortality can generate very different excess mortality rates.

This represents a potential challenge for Life and Health (L&H) insurance, with potentially several years of elevated mortality claims ahead, depending on how general population trends translate into the insured population.

Ongoing excess mortality can have implications for L&H insurance claims and reserves. Excess mortality that continues to exceed current expectations may affect the long-term performance of in-force life portfolios as well as the pricing of new life policies.

In this research Swiss Re Institute projects excess mortality in the US and UK over the next 10 years under different scenarios, by analysing excess mortality trends globally and disaggregating the underlying factors driving them.

Download the full report